Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Oscar Poll: Best Picture 2018

Our final Oscar poll this year of course looks at the top prize. Which movie do you expect to win Best Picture on Sunday?

PLEASE NOTE: I am dividing this into two polls. The first is your prediction for which director will actually take home the trophy, regardless of merit.

Which Movie WILL Win the Oscar for Best Picture 2018?

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I’m honestly torn on this one. When the nominations were announced, my first reaction was to say that ‘Dunkirk’ looked like the safest bet to claim Best Picture. The film was critically respected and a big box office hit. The World War II setting and subject matter is also a perennial favorite among Oscar voters. However, the movie’s lack of a strong central character or performance may leave voters cold. The buzz around the movie has also seemed to dissipate in recent weeks.

‘Three Billboards’ won the Golden Globe for Best Drama as well as the SAG equivalent. It seems to have the most momentum going into the ceremony. The story is centered around a strong woman, which certainly earns it bonus points this year. However, the subject matter is divisive, and the film has faced a backlash recently, especially about its racial politics. Then again, a backlash didn’t stop ‘Birdman’ from winning a few years ago.

‘The Shape of Water’ is the leader for nominations, but aside from ‘Lord of the Rings’, fantasy films haven’t fared too well at the Oscars. The predominantly older voters don’t care for them very often. ‘Get Out’ faces a similar resistance to horror movies.

‘Call Me by Your Name’, ‘Darkest Hour’, ‘Lady Bird’, ‘Phantom Thread’, and ‘The Post’ can all be ruled out right off the bat. Those are all “It’s an honor just to be nominated” picks and stand no chance of winning.

Josh’s prediction: ‘Three Billboards’

Next, if you were an Oscar voter, which of the nominees would get your vote?

Which Movie SHOULD Win the Oscar for Best Picture 2018?

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I’m disappointed that ‘The Florida Project’ wasn’t nominated. That was the best film I saw in 2017.

23 comments

  1. I’ve seen ‘The Darkest Hour’, ‘Three Billboards’, ‘Dunkirk’ and ‘Get Out’. ‘TDH’ (like ‘Roman J. Israel’) is really all about the actor. I was blown away by Oldman, but I don’t know how I’d feel about the rest of the movie if he was removed/replaced. ‘Three Billboards’ was excellent, a nice balance between drama and dark comedy. Of the four I’ve seen, it seems the most likely a ‘Best Picture’ winner, but I do expect ‘Dunkirk’ to take home the prize.

    I would personally like ‘Get Out’ to win, because I feel it was a pretty much perfect horror movie. I’d love to see a genre movie like that win best picture.

    • Clark

      Me too!
      My top 3 are “Dunkirk”, “Three Billboards” and “The Post”.
      Didn’t like “The Darkest Hour” (though Oldman is great).

    • Dunkirk is my #1 pick too.

      I’ve already written off this whole awards season, though. The industry is tainted right now. Everyone is in CYA mode. I believe votes are flying for politically and socially correct titles, as opposed to those that most deserve it. They’re omitting anything that may have the slightest scent of scandal and praising those that allow them to say, “I’m not [racist/sexist/etc] because I voted for ________.” I’m reminded of the scene in ‘Get Out’ where the father-in-law says something like, “I’d have voted for Obama for a third term if I could have.”

      • Josh Zyber
        Author

        That’s been a problem with the Oscars forever. Was Gandhi really the best picture of 1982? Not even remotely, but nobody at the time wanted to admit they voted against the Gandhi movie.

        • Al

          Josh, don’t compare 1982 to now. It’s not even in the same ballpark. While politics have always played a role in Oscar voting, it has never been as prevalent as it is, right now. You know this is true. And if you actually don’t, you’re delusional. Everything that Luke said rings true. In fact, Luke undersold what an epidemic this has become. There’s no way that Daniel Kaluuya gets nominated in any other year in history. And while I won’t make quite as strong of a statement about Get Out, I do strongly believe this is the only year in history in which a film like that gets nominated.

          • Ian Whitcombe

            Huh. Daniel Kaluuya would be my current choice for Best Actor out of the films I’ve seen. The fact that he may not have been nominated in previous years speaks against the Academy’s track record, not for it.

          • Al

            No. That’s flat out ridiculous. He doesn’t actually even do any acting in that film. The nomination is solely due to the color of his skin.

          • Al

            Tim, you’re not wrong about Moonlight or Mahershala. Viola Davis is the Denzel of women. She deserves to be nominated, for nearly any role she’s in.

          • Timcharger

            Wow, I’m surprised to read that Viola part from you.

            But that doesn’t make up for you being wrong about Moonlight.
            http://www.metacritic.com/movie/moonlight-2016/critic-reviews
            To say it doesn’t deserve the nomination?! Look at the evidence. Like 40 top critics with perfect scores. Not fairly positive, but maximum 100% scores.

            (So I am WRONG about Moonlight; you didn’t catch my irony in my previous comment.)

        • Timcharger

          Josh, don’t compare 1982 to 2017. It’s not even in the same ballpark…
          There’s no way that Moonlight gets nominated in any other year in history.
          There’s no way that Mahershala Ali gets nominated in any other year in history.
          There’s no way that Viola Davis gets nominated in any other year in history.

          Oh wait, I forgot it’s 2018.
          🙂

          • Al

            Of course I caught the irony. Are you that obtuse?

            Don’t blindly assume someone is racist, because they make comments about being displeased with the politics of Oscar voting. Viola and Daniel are like comparing Meryl Streep to Channing Tatum. In fact, the gap is even larger than that.

            Your statistics about Moonlight mean nothing. Just take The Big Sick, as an example. I could spout the same statistics about it, but it wasn’t nominated. However, if it would have had a black, gay, or better yet, black and gay political agenda, it definitely would have been nominated. The only thing holding The Big Sick back was its lack of political commentary.

            I’m not going to repeat everything Luke originally stated, but if you need an accurate picture, just go back to his original comments. Everything he says is right on point. The Oscars will mean nothing, until the most deserving films are once again nominated. And I don’t see that happening any time soon, given the current Hollywood climate.

          • Josh Zyber
            Author

            Let’s all take a step back before things get too heated here. We’re moving past the point where this is a productive conversation.

            It’s true that Oscar voting is often politically motivated. It’s been that way for decades, if not all along. The Oscars are a popularity contest, not a genuine award for merit. It’s also true that a huge chunk of the Oscar voting base consists of elderly and fairly racist white men, many of whom have reportedly flat-out refused to watch some of this year’s nominated films.

            So, it’s a shitshow all around, and has been like that forever. This isn’t a new thing.

            Sniping at one another here doesn’t help matters any. The both of you need to take a deep breath and consider whether the next reply you’ve started typing is really worth posting. I will start deleting comments if this keeps up.

      • Timcharger

        Luke, Josh, is pointing out that it is in fact a secret ballot, a flaw to your reasoning? How does it CYA if no one can see how one voted anyway?
        (Or should this comment be deleted too?)

  2. DH

    I still don’t understand why no one seems to care that among it’s other flaws, Three Billboards is simply a terribly written movie.

  3. Timcharger

    Josh: “I’m disappointed that ‘The Florida Project’ wasn’t nominated. That was the best film I saw in 2017.”

    That’s because you didn’t see the Last Jedi in 2017. (Can’t disprove a counterfactual.)
    🙂

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