Oscars 2019

Poll: What Will Win the 2019 Best Picture Oscar?

With the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences seemingly in disarray, an awards show scheduled for this weekend with no host, and a weird selection of nominees, this may be the toughest Oscar season to predict in ages. Nonetheless, predict we will. Which movie do you think will ultimately claim Best Picture at the end of the interminably long night?

Please note that this post contains two polls. The first is your prediction for which movie the Academy voters will crown, while the second is your personal opinion for which of the nominees (if any) actually deserves to win. As we all know, the most deserving movie is rarely the one to come out on top in this horse race.

I don’t have a particularly great track record at calling the Oscars, but that doesn’t usually stop me from having opinions on the matter. This year, however, I’m at a complete loss. When the nominees were first announced, I thought that Green Book looked like the front-runner, but that movie feels like it lost a lot of momentum in the meantime. The same can be said for A Star Is Born, which was anointed a sure thing when it was first released but now barely seems to be in the conversation.

Strong arguments can be made against any of these movies winning. Black Panther, for example, is the type of silly popcorn entertainment that Academy voters don’t typically take seriously. Vice wasn’t especially well-liked among critics, and seems to be the most clearly undeserving nominee. Bohemian Rhapsody also had mixed reviews, and director Bryan Singer is so toxic right now that that I doubt anyone wants to reward him. (A Best Actor trophy for Rami Malek will be that film’s consolation prize.) Green Book has faced a backlash for the way it filters an African American story through a white character’s perspective. A Star Is Born is the fourth remake of a story that’s been told way too many times already. BlacKkKlansman is perhaps too edgy and controversial to win. The Favourite is your traditional “It’s nice just to be nominated” inclusion. The rapturous reviews for Roma may be offset by the cinema industry’s fear of Netflix. Roma is also nominated in the Best Foreign Language Film category, which the voters may consider sufficient recognition.

I’ve written previously about how unimpressed I was with Black Panther as a movie. Even among Marvel superhero fluff, it’s lower-tier, in my opinion. The film is more symbolically important than actually good. Nonetheless, the Academy is under great pressure to start rewarding more populist movies, and a big blockbuster headlined almost entirely by people of color may be a politically strategic choice in our current cultural climate. That would be an awfully cynical move and I hope it doesn’t happen, but I wouldn’t put it past the voters.

That said, my prediction right now is that Roma will triumph in the end. The Academy loves Alfonso Cuarón, and the almost unanimously glowing reviews make it a safe choice. (Plus, giving major awards to Mexicans is a fun way for Hollywood to thumb its collective nose at Donald Trump.)

That’s my gut feeling right now, anyway. But I don’t feel very confident about it. If Roma takes the Foreign Language category early, I’ll know that it’s significantly less likely to also claim Best Picture.

How do you think this will play out?

Your Prediction

Which Movie WILL Win Best Picture 2019?

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Your Personal Opinion

Which Movie SHOULD Win Best Picture 2019?

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19 comments

  1. This is the first time in 15+ years that I’ve not seen all of the nominees. Making this year even more of an anomaly for me – and I am staggered that I let this happen – I have only seen one of the nominees: Black Panther.

    • Josh Zyber
      Author

      No foreign language film has won Best Picture to date.

      The following movies were nominated for both Best Foreign Language Film and Best Picture, but only won Best Foreign Language film:

      Amour
      Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon
      Life Is Beautiful
      Z

      Additionally, the following movies were nominated for Best Picture but were not nominated for Best Foreign Language Film:

      Cries and Whispers
      The Emigrants
      Grand Illusion
      Letters from Iwo Jima
      Il Postino

      (The eligibility rules for the Best Foreign Language Film category require the movie’s home country to submit it as an official selection.)

  2. Bolo

    I’m bad at predicting which way the Oscars will go. My reasoning would tell me that ‘A Star is Born’ has the best odds seeing as it is not only popular and safe, but also somewhat of an institution, a mantle that gets passed down from one generation of Hollywood to the next (I honesty can’t believe we never got a version with either Madonna or Whitney Houston). And the Oscars love rewarding films about showbiz.

    But it also seems for the past 20 years, the Best Picture Oscar usually goes to the movie I find the weakest of the nominees. Of the ones I’ve seen, that would be ‘Roma’. Jeez that movie was tedious, and I’ve enjoyed Cuarón’s other films in this style. ‘Roma’ was just one of the least engaging films I’ve seen since ….. well … ‘The Shape of Water’.

    I haven’t seen ‘Black Panther’ and I am not really into superhero movies, but people seem to be absolutely nuts about the genre right now. And if you go by Rotten Tomatoes scores, ‘Black Panter’ is currently considered a better film than ‘There Will Be Blood’ (or any of PT Anderson’s non-documentary films for that matter) and ‘Black Swan’ or ‘Blade Runner 2049’. That strikes me as unlikely to reflect my own outlook. So, if I have to guess right now, I might as well go with ‘Black Panther’ as the winner and further proof of how out of touch I am.

    I’d also guess that Spike Lee gets the best director award as somewhat of a recognition for his whole career. That makes sense to me, so it probably won’t happen. They’ll probably reward Cuarón.

  3. For a while I thought it could be a down-to-the-wire coin flip between Roma and Green Book. Now I don’t see anything having a chance to take Roma down. Best Picture nominees kind of a mixed bag this year. Wish they would just go back to 5 nominees. I don’t have the data, but I doubt the ratings have improved that much since they expanded to (a possible) 10. Bohemian Rhapsody, Star Is Born, and Vice could easily just be taken out, leaving us with 4 really good movies and a cultural phenomenon that was pretty good.

  4. Clark

    Roma WILL win. But, as beautiful as this film is, it is also very boring, and in many scenes the movement of the camera seemed to be more important than what was happening on the screen.
    I think A Star is Born SHOULD win, because it was the only memorable film in this list, and I loved the romance, the songs, the ending, the sound, and Lady Gaga acting. Who cares if it is a remake? Hollywood is out of new ideas anyway!

  5. Dave

    I think Overlord should of been nominated for best foreign picture, since it was set in Germany! And yes I am totally joking guys and gals. Honestly, it is my favorite theater experience of the year and sounds great in dolby atmos.

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