Hollywood is in such a shambles these days that it’s almost a surprise the Academy Awards are going through with an Oscars ceremony this year at all. Nevertheless, tradition must be upheld and too much money is on the line. Actors Andy Serkis and Tiffany Haddish presented the latest round of nominations this morning.
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Desperate to avoid further controversy, scandalized figures such as Harvey Weinstein and James Franco were snubbed in virtually all categories despite having movies that were well received with awards buzz last year (‘Wind River’ and ‘The Disaster Artist’, respectively). By this point, absolutely no one expected Weinstein to ever be rewarded with anything else for the rest of his life, but Franco’s scandal is so recent (and tamer in comparison) that he just won a Best Actor Golden Globe a couple weeks ago and was nominated for a SAG Award too, which left social media fretting with consternation about whether he’d attend the Oscar ceremony if nominated. That turns out to be a moot question, as ‘The Disaster Artist’ scored only a single nomination, for its screenplay written by Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber, which must have felt like a safe enough token acknowledgement for the film since Franco can’t receive the trophy himself. <\/p>\n
Brief knee-jerk thoughts on the other nominations (or lack thereof) follow. As always, I must put forth the caveat that I am terrible<\/em> at making Oscar predictions. <\/p>\n Current Oscar rules allow for anywhere between five to ten Best Picture nominees. This year brings us nine. Of them, the only one I find surprising is ‘Darkest Hour’, which (aside from praise for star Gary Oldman) was met with largely tepid reviews and box office. That film, ‘Call Me by Your Name’, ‘Lady Bird’, ‘Phantom Thread’, and ‘The Post’ are all “It’s reward enough just to be nominated” contenders in this category with negligible chance of winning it. <\/p>\n I’m very disappointed not to see ‘The Florida Project’ in this line-up. That was my favorite film of last year. <\/p>\n Jordan Peele’s ‘Get Out’ is the year’s big populist pick, but horror films are generally looked down upon by the Academy and I can’t see it winning Best Picture except perhaps as a political statement. And if the voters wanted to pull that kind of stunt, I think they’d probably put their support behind the female-driven ‘Lady Bird’ instead. <\/p>\n As it had at the Golden Globes, Guillermo del Toro’s ‘The Shape of Water’ leads the pack with the most nominations overall (13 total). However, it failed to nab the big prize at the Globes and likely will here as well. Aside from ‘The Lord of the Rings’, fantasy films are usually dismissed as frivolous entertainment by Oscar voters. <\/p>\n Following its Golden Globe and SAG wins, ‘Three Billboards’ appears to have the most momentum at this time, but it has also faced a huge backlash from viewers who simply haaaaaaaate<\/em> it and have demanded the heads of everyone involved in its making. Controversy like that can be good for buzz, but this year of all years may hamper its odds of winning. <\/p>\n In my view, all this leaves Christopher Nolan’s ‘Dunkirk’ as the safest choice for voters. The film was embraced by critics and a big box office hit. Its World War II subject matter is perennially popular with Oscar voters (especially the sizable contingent of older voters). Right now, I’m not aware of anyone involved in its creation being hit by scandal (though that could change at any moment). It seems to be primed for Oscar glory. <\/p>\n On the other hand, ‘Dunkirk’ was somewhat criticized for lacking a strong emotional core or well-developed characters, and for whitewashing a historical event that actually involved more people of color than are seen on screen. Its lack of strong female roles may also be a big detriment this year. <\/p>\n Ultimately, I’m not sure where this will go. I could be completely off-base with all my reasoning, as I was last year. Perhaps a dark horse like ‘Lady Bird’ will sneak in and claim victory. I won’t discount that possibility, but if I’m forced to make an off-the-cuff guess\u2026<\/p>\n Josh’s Prediction:<\/strong> ‘Dunkirk’<\/p>\n From what I can tell, this looks like a two-way race between Christopher Nolan and Guillermo del Toro. Voters are likely to be torn between the impressive technical achievement of ‘Dunkirk’ and the compelling fantastical vision of ‘The Shape of Water’. <\/p>\n That said, Greta Gerwig is only the fifth woman to have ever been nominated for Best Director (only one of which has actually won so far). Not to be too cynical about what is by all accounts an excellent movie, but a political motivation like that could score big points this year. <\/p>\n In recent years, Oscar has treated Best Director as more of a technical rather than artistic category, which leads me to think\u2026<\/p>\n Josh’s Prediction:<\/strong> Christopher Nolan<\/p>\n I half expected the Academy to do away with the male acting categories entirely this year. <\/p>\n ‘Phantom Thread’ is allegedly Daniel Day-Lewis’ final acting performance, but he already has three Oscars and that’s more than enough. <\/p>\n ‘Darkest Hour’ may not be either the best movie or the best performance in Gary Oldman’s career, but he’s a well-liked figure in the industry and the Oscars have a long history of turning this award into a cumulative career achievement prize. It’s also a very large, showboating performance, which the voters love. <\/p>\n Josh’s Prediction:<\/strong> Gary Oldman<\/p>\n Aside from being a final performance, everything I just said about Daniel Day-Lewis also applies to Meryl Streep. Doesn’t she already have enough trophies on her mantle for several lifetimes? Continuing to nominate her for every single movie she makes has grown tiring. There are other good actresses in the world, you know.<\/p>\n Frances McDormand won at both the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards and appears to be on a winning streak.<\/p>\n Josh’s Prediction:<\/strong> Frances McDormand<\/p>\n ‘The Florida Project’ was shut out of any other nominations, but the voters couldn’t ignore Willem Dafoe’s heartbreaking supporting turn. It’s a change of pace for the actor, who usually specializes in playing skeevy villains, and he knocks it out of the park.<\/p>\n Sadly, that movie was largely forgotten in other respects. Most awards attention has turned toward Sam Rockwell instead, and I expect that to hold true at the Oscars.<\/p>\n Josh’s Prediction:<\/strong> Sam Rockwell<\/p>\n Allison Janney and Laurie Metcalf gave the standout performances in their respective movies, both playing domineering mothers (albeit of different sorts). Metcalf’s character proves to be more sympathetic, which may give her the edge. <\/p>\n Josh’s Prediction:<\/strong> Laurie Metcalf<\/p>\n I can’t see this going to anything other than ‘Coco’. It looks like a blowout to me. <\/p>\n How did ‘The Boss Baby’ even get nominated? Was the competition really that weak?<\/p>\n Josh’s Prediction:<\/strong> ‘Coco’<\/p>\n Of these titles, only ‘The Square’ had much of a theatrical release in the U.S. last year. The film also won top prize at Cannes. Barring any election interference from a foreign power, surely that will get the most votes. <\/p>\n Josh’s Prediction:<\/strong> ‘Loveless’<\/p>\n Best Screenplay is often used as a consolation prize for movies that don’t win any of their other nominations. I see that happening to ‘Get Out’ this year.<\/p>\n Josh’s Prediction:<\/strong> ‘Get Out’<\/p>\n Same rationale as above.<\/p>\n Josh’s Prediction:<\/strong> ‘Call Me by Your Name’<\/p>\n It’s got to win something\u2026<\/p>\n Josh’s Prediction:<\/strong> ‘Blade Runner 2049’<\/p>\n Josh’s Prediction:<\/strong> ‘The Shape of Water’<\/p>\n Josh’s Prediction:<\/strong> ‘Dunkirk’<\/p>\nBest Picture<\/h2>\n
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Best Director<\/h2>\n
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Best Actor<\/h2>\n
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Best Actress<\/h2>\n
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Best Supporting Actor<\/h2>\n
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Best Supporting Actress<\/h2>\n
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Best Animated Feature<\/h2>\n
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Best Foreign-Language Film<\/h2>\n
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Best Original Screenplay<\/h2>\n
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Best Adapted Screenplay<\/h2>\n
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Best Visual Effects<\/h2>\n
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Best Cinematography<\/h2>\n
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Best Original Score<\/h2>\n
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Best Original Song<\/h2>\n
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