While we’re predicting this year’s Oscars, let’s move on to the Best Actress category. Which of the nominees do you believe will take the trophy? Which one actually deserves it?

PLEASE NOTE: This topic has been divided into two polls. The first is your prediction for which actress will actually take home the trophy, regardless of merit.

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The safest bet here appears to be Frances McDormand. She’s already won at the Golden Globes and SAG Awards, and that momentum is likely to carry through. (Remember, many of the same people in the industry vote for both the SAGs and the Oscars.) Additionally, her character in ‘Three Billboards’ is the type of feisty, take-no-guff ball-buster that often appeals to Oscar voters. Working against her, McDormand already has an Oscar on her mantle (for ‘Fargo’), and ‘Three Billboards’ has faced a growing backlash since it triumphed at the Golden Globes.

The only of these nominees I feel I can totally rule out is Meryl Streep. The woman already has more Oscars than she knows what to do with, and her continued nominations year after year are a running joke. It doesn’t seem like anyone was really all that enthusiastic about ‘The Post’ anyway.

Both Saoirse Ronan and Margot Robbie are ingenues who seem like they will inevitably win Oscars. That both works in their favor (why not just make this the year?) and against them (they’re both young and will get more chances at this).

If McDormand doesn’t take it, Sally Hawkins might have the best chance of beating her. ‘The Shape of Water’ leads the nominations this year with the most overall, so clearly the voters liked the film. Her performance as a mute woman who falls in love with a fish-man manages a pretty remarkable feat of eliciting a strong emotional response despite, 1) speaking no dialogue, and 2) being a rather silly concept. Hawkins wouldn’t be first woman to win Best Actress for a role with no dialogue (Holly Hunter did that with ‘The Piano’, and Marlee Matlin’s performance in ‘Children of a Lesser God’ was mostly sign language – and of course all the silent films that won back in the day), but it’s rare enough to still be impressive.

Josh’s prediction: Frances McDormand

Now tell us which performance you personally thought was the best.

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