The TV advertisements for this weekend’s Academy Award ceremony claim that it’s the tightest race in years. Is that really the case? Which movie do you think will win the Best Picture Oscar this year? More importantly, which movie do you think should win?
I’ve created two polls here. Be sure to vote in both.
First, we want to you predict which movie will win the Oscar. This has nothing to do with which movie you think deserves to win. (That’s coming up next.) Rather, how do you think the Academy members will vote?
With that out of the way, now it’s time to tell us which movie you think should win, in your personal opinion. If you don’t like any of the nominees, tell us your pick for best movie from 2013 in the Comments.
As far as predicting what the Academy will do, I don’t know that this race is really all that tight. Right off the bat, we can eliminate ‘Captain Phillips’, ‘Dallas Buyers Club’, ‘Her’, ‘Nebraska’ and ‘Philomena’. None of those stands a chance of picking up the big prize (though they may win other trophies). Populist picks ‘Gravity’ and ‘The Wolf of Wall Street’ are also unlikely, though may slip in as dark horse victors if the remaining two contenders split the vote.
If the buzz can be trusted, this competition really comes down to the harrowing Antebellum South drama ’12 Years a Slave’ and the unruly con artist dramedy ‘American Hustle’. Both films won Golden Globes (for drama and comedy respectively). ‘Slave’ also picked up a BAFTA, while ‘Hustle’ nabbed top honors from the Screen Actors Guild.
With the caveat that I’m very bad at picking award winners, I’m pretty sure that ’12 Years a Slave’ will take home the Oscar. It’s the more important and artistically-minded film, and its subject matter is so touchy that Academy members may feel guilty if they don’t vote for it. ‘American Hustle’ is a more purely fun movie, but it has also suffered a significant backlash about its shallow script and lack of discipline or coherent structure.
Then again, I’m frequently wrong in making Oscar predictions. How do you think this year’s ceremony will go?