On Sunday night, January 11th, the 72nd Golden Globes will take place at the Beverly Hilton Hotel in Los Angeles. Unlike many previous ceremonies, this year there are no clear-cut frontrunners in most of the major categories. Below, I’ll take my best crack at guessing who I think will walk away with the major movie awards. (Look for a follow-up post tackling the TV categories later this week.)

Keep in mind that my picks aren’t necessarily who I think should win, but rather who I think the trophies are most likely to be awarded to, given the current buzz as well as past trends of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.

Best Motion Picture, Drama

• ‘Boyhood‘
• ‘Foxcatcher‘
• ‘The Imitation Game’
• ‘Selma’
• ‘The Theory of Everything’

The real award-bait movie here seems to be ‘Selma’, which – while telling the story of Martin Luther King, Jr. and the voting rights march of the mid-1960s – reminds me very much of the way that ‘The Butler‘ tried to get awards thrown its way this time last year. Fortunately, this is a much better movie that that one, and perhaps could be the wild card candidate to pull out a win here. There’s been a lot of sentiment toward ‘Boyhood’ as well, much of it due to the fact that the movie took 12 years to make. Instead, I’m betting that voters will go with ‘The Imitation Game‘, which started to build some steam at other awards shows and should also be the likely frontrunner come Oscar time.

Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy

• ‘Birdman’
• ‘The Grand Budapest Hotel‘
• ‘Into the Woods’
• ‘Pride‘
• ‘St. Vincent‘

Let’s be clear, not only do I think ‘The Grand Budapest Hotel’ is the best movie in this category, I think it’s better than any of the movies in the Drama category as well. It was my favorite movie of the year when I first saw it many months ago, and it remains my favorite movie of 2014. However, I think it’s far more likely that we’ll see ‘Birdman‘ fly away with the trophy.

Best Actor, Drama

• Steve Carell – ‘Foxcatcher’
• Benedict Cumberbatch – ‘The Imitation Game’
• Jake Gyllenhaal – ‘Nightcrawler‘
• David Oyelowo – ‘Selma’
• Eddie Redmayne – ‘The Theory of Everything’

Early on, Steve Carell seemed a shoe-in for this win. No longer. In the past few weeks, everyone’s been talking about Jake Gyllenhaal getting recognized for his strong performance. But I think the Hollywood Foreign Press will give the trophy to the actor from the best movie on this list, and that’s none other than Khaaaaaaaaaan! Err, I mean Benedict Cumberbatch.

Best Actor, Musical or Comedy

• Ralph Fiennes – ‘The Grand Budapest Hotel’
• Michael Keaton – ‘Birdman’
• Bill Murray – ‘St. Vincent’
• Joaquin Phoenix – ‘Inherent Vice‘
• Christoph Waltz – ‘Big Eyes’

Everyone loves a good comeback story, even though close followers of his career know that Michael Keaton didn’t really go anywhere .He’s the closest thing to a sure thing in the movie categories at this year’s Golden Globes. This is one of the few picks I feel strongly about.

Best Actress, Drama

• Jennifer Aniston – ‘Cake’
• Felicity Jones – ‘The Theory of Everything’
• Julianne Moore – ‘Still Alice’
• Rosamund Pike – ‘Gone Girl‘
• Reese Witherspoon – ‘Wild’

All the oddsmakers seem to think that this one is a contest between Julianne Moore and Reese Witherspoon, with Moore most likely to win, while Rosamund Pike could be a surprise wild card. I’m going to go against the grain here and predict an upset by Jennifer Aniston. That seems like exactly the kind of thing the Hollywood Foreign Press would do, as they often like to make a statement for a performance/actor they really like, rather than going with the universal consensus.

Best Actress, Musical or Comedy

• Amy Adams – ‘Big Eyes’
• Emily Blunt – ‘Into the Woods’
• Helen Mirren – ‘The Hundred Foot Journey‘
• Julianne Moore – ‘Maps to the Stars’
• Quvenzhané Wallis – ‘Annie’

It’s nice that young Ms. Wallis was given a nomination here for a pretty lackluster movie, but that just goes to show what a weak category this is. Even the winner here, whomever she may be, isn’t guaranteed to be on the short list of Oscar nominees. With that in mind, I think the award will most likely go to Emily Blunt, if only so that ‘Into the Woods’ doesn’t walk away empty-handed on awards night. Amy Adams is the dark horse here, but many think (and I agree) that the fact she won an award in this category last year (for ‘American Hustle‘) will probably keep her off the stage this year.

Best Director

• Wes Anderson – ‘The Grand Budapest Hotel’
• Ava DuVernay – ‘Selma’
• David Fincher – ‘Gone Girl’
• Alejandro González Iñárritu – ‘Birdman’
• Richard Linklater – ‘Boyhood’

While I personally don’t think there’s a better directed movie from 2014 than Wes Anderson’s ‘The Grand Budapest Hotel’, it’s hard to imagine this trophy going to anyone else but Richard Linklater. After all, how many other directors can say their film took over a decade to shoot?

Well, there you go. Those are my picks for this Sunday’s show. We’ll be back later in the week to cover the major TV nominees. In the meantime, feel free to tell me where you think I’ve screwed up!